Thirty-two games remain on the schedule on the other side of the All-Star break, and it’s clear that the Kraken, projected to hit 88.1 points in the standings, barely clearing the 88.1 bar set in the Pacific Division to make the playoffs, need to make the most of what’s ahead should they intend to clinch.
Little room for failure exists, and whether the Kraken can convert projections into victory depends heavily on skater performance: staying healthy and sourcing two-way contributions from across the lineup. Injuries are uncontrollable, unpredictable, but let’s take a look at what each Kraken forward has accomplished thus far to get a better idea of what can be expected from them as the season progresses.
There will be no fallacious ranking here, only individually-assigned ratings according to the system as follows: Excellent, Good, Acceptable, and Poor. Data is all situations unless otherwise stated.
Excellent
These skaters have fulfilled expectations to a tee, gone above and beyond, or have come through with uniquely strong skills at crucial times in a way that makes them invaluable. Seattle would be struggling without them.
Jaden Schwartz
Having recently surpassed the 700 games milestone a week-and-a-half ago, the Kraken should be glad he’s spent even a portion of that time with him. Offensive consistency has been Schwartz’s forte under contract with Seattle and he’s brought it again this season, leading all Kraken forwards in xG/60 (1.01), recording a 14.3 SH%, and tilting total shot quality in Seattle’s favor (52.8%). As long as he can stay healthy– he has, somewhat, anticipated to play 56 games by season’s end– he can continue maintaining the stellar net-front presence the Kraken perpetually need from him, the very same which upgrades his importance despite relatively mediocre production (projected to hit 16 goals and 34 points, a respectable increase from the 10 goals and 21 points he’s already accumulated).
Oliver Bjorkstrand
It shouldn’t come as a surprise to hear Bjorkstrand currently leads his team in points (40) and is tied for second in goals (13). Afterall, a calm offseason will do wonders prepping for the season ahead– he told the media he “felt better coming into camp” this time around than last, fresh off a trade, surgery, and a wedding, and that comfort shows. A confident, skulking sniper with a touch of gold, Bjorkstrand’s scored a team-leading 2.90 points per game and has given Seattle on-ice advantages in both goals share (58%) and shot quality (61.4%), providing a lifeline for the regression-wrought Kraken. Additionally the recent first-time All-Star representative is a weapon on the power play and a reliable, strategic puck handler, making him an invaluable asset on both ends of the ice. In fact, Seattle’s ability to control shot quality performs the worst without him (46.2%).
Tomáš Tatar
Seattle has a knack for scouting diamonds in the rough (McCann, Tolvanen, Kartye) and they’ve done it again with Tatar. General manager Ron Francis told the Seattle Times he intended Tatar– sixteen games with the Kraken were all he needed to match what he accomplished in 27 games with the Colorado Avalanche to start this season (nine points). But, he hardly required that much time to develop chemistry with his linemates, whom he’s clicked perfectly with. There’s a finesse, a swagger to his game Seattle’s benefited from, apparent when he drives the net, expertly dishes a difficult pass to a teammate, or tears away from the rest of the pack for a breakaway. Finishing was a concern at the time of his acquisition but any issues in that department seem to have cleared up– Seattle has the largest share in goals scored with Tatar on the ice (62.7%).
Tatar’s stunning first half deserves the ‘excellent’ grading, but keep an eye out for a dip in production on the horizon. Seattle’s ability to control shot quality hardly budges with and without him, his individual opportunities generated are relatively low, his shooting percentage has declined since its abrupt rise to 17.6 this past December, and his PDO sits at an astonishing 110.
Eeli Tolvanen
Two-way excellency has made Tolvanen an incredibly important player for the Kraken. Having the fifth-highest percentage of their shot attempts blocked (30.16%) increases the urgency for Seattle to be finding lanes and blocking plenty of their opponent’s shots, both categories in which Tolvanen excels. He generates high danger chances at a similar rate to Yanni Gourde (second-most high danger unblocked shot attempts, second-most high danger expected goals), only he actually converts his chances, maintaining a 13.3 SH% after getting off to an unlucky start in October. Tolvanen ranks second in both total shots blocked (52) and shots blocked per game (3.91), and after the NHL’s hits audit this past Wednesday, he became the Kraken’s leader in hits (108). Plus, he’s on track to rocket past his previous career-high in points, estimated to hit 49 in 82 games. All that amounts to a wide advantage in shot quality (60.6%).
Jared McCann
At the halfway point, McCann leads in both goals (20) and power play goals (7). It’s this kind of scoring consistency that warrants an ‘excellent’ rating even despite a decline in his collective contributions. McCann no longer gives his team a noticeable control over total shot quality (with him on the ice, the Kraken went from controlling over 55% of the total shot quality for the past two seasons, to controlling half). But he’s expected to score at the highest rate of any Kraken skater (1.49 goals per game) and is clearly coming through on those offensive promises. McCann also continues to defy shooting models, scoring 8.4 more goals than he was supposed to. He’s become more of an individual weapon than a team-wide needle-mover, but that’s not an issue for Seattle.
Good
Solid, noticeable contributors who do a lot of the little things right, but don’t exactly stun.
Tye Kartye
For an undrafted skater, Kartye is handling his first full season in the NHL about as well as anyone could have hoped. Are ‘rookie of the year’ honors on the horizon? Probably not. But his career trajectory was never going to be so abruptly successful anyways– for him to make a smooth transition into a full-time bottom-six role was the overarching goal for this season, and he’s done just that. None of his offensive nor defensive stats jump out as being noteworthy, indicating he’s reasonably limited opposing chances and generated some momentum for Seattle. By no means is he a game-changing player. What’s important is that he’s got the intangibles any rookie would need at this point to lay the foundation for the future: good health, a resilient mindset, and the stamina necessary to keep up with the fast-pace of the league. And by the way he’s cheerfully interacted with the media in the locker room and shown no hesitation roughing up opposing teams, he seems to check those boxes.
Yanni Gourde
Seattle’s best line– the third line– has controlled 59.9% of the total shot quality over the course of 41 games played this season, a feat impossible to accomplish without Gourde. While lacking a finishing touch makes him far from an explosive scorer in his own right (robbed of 6.7 more goals than expected), Gourde’s the play-driving glue that holds the wings together. Individually he’s generated 49 high-danger chances (first) and 13 rebound opportunities (second), and has created 11.5 expected goals through dangerous shots (second). Seven of his 13 assists have been on goals by either Bjorkstrand or Tolvanen. An increase in production could be in store for him over the second half of the season, although, let’s hope we’ve seen the last of the suspensions.
Kailer Yamamoto
Expectations were low for Yamamoto to begin the season due to anticipated fourth-line usage and career-spanning inconsistency of health and production, so his meager 12 points aren’t much of a letdown. Seattle’s no stranger to renovation projects but he was never going to be used intensely– Tolvanen was placed alongside roster heavyweights Gourde and Bjorkstrand when he debuted, whereas Yamamoto was stuck on the fourth line from day one. Regardless, he’s done a solid job with the 43 games he’s been given, and there’s even ground to advocate for an increase in his usage. A brash willingness to break through opposing defenses makes him useful when the Kraken stagnate in their own zone, as does his 15.6 SH% (3rd), all equipping Seattle with a 64.7% edge in shot quality. Those sterling numbers aren’t inflated by a small sample size, either– Yamamoto’s got nearly double the ice-time in comparison with his counterpart acquisition Bellemare.
Acceptable
Not bad, but not great performances from these skaters, either. In some cases, blending in indicates a job well-done. In others? Cause for trading.
Brandon Tanev
A gentler ‘acceptable’ rating, Tanev, a blue-collar winger, has stood out neither for particularly exemplary nor deplorable reasons. Individually he’s scoring at the same rate he did last season (13.2 SH% compared to 13.9 SH%) despite missing a solid chunk of time due to injuries, a good sign as less ice time indicates lower shooting frequency. Usage on the penalty kill stands as his most important deployment, and while he’s allowing a high number of shot attempts while shorthanded, he’s keeping shot quality and high danger attempts to a minimum (first and second in those categories, respectively). Probably the most important thing about Tanev’s 2023-24 campaign is that he intends to finish it fully healthy.
Alex Wennberg
To put it simply, Wennberg isn’t as bad as criticism makes him out to be, but he’s not maximizing the 2C role like the Kraken need him to be, either. Case in point: Wennberg has the fewest shot attempts (98) and fewest points (20) among Kraken forwards with the most games played (50). Between Matty Beniers’ demotion to the fourth line after his injury and Gourde’s own low-scoring season, Seattle’s without an impact player down the middle. Allowing the highest expected goals per game (3.57) and the most high danger shot attempts per game (4.23), defensive play alone isn’t enough to justify keeping him for defense’s sake, especially considering he starts the highest percentage of his shifts in his own zone. As a pending free agent Wennberg is someone Seattle would benefit from moving should an upgrade be feasible.
Jordan Eberle
Over the course of the season he’s been an asset almost entirely in the chemistry he’s formed with his linemates during an uncharacteristic decline in production of which misfortune is at least partly to blame. His PDO’s skyrocketed since starting the season at rock bottom, a boost coinciding with a refreshingly high-scoring January (12 points in 13 games). Plenty of skaters are seeing production dips but so much forgiveness has already been doled out to those struggling with injuries– he’s having an outlier season the Kraken can’t afford. Scoring a new contract may be in his cards if he can keep up his recent scoring pace and overcome production projections estimating a career-low 15 goals this season. Scoring credibility and extensive postseason experience (47 points in 76 career playoff games) make Eberle an alluring potential piece of deadline bait; one has to wonder if he’ll want to break 1000 career games with a team poised for a legitimate championship run.
Poor
Flat out unsatisfactory performances from these skaters despite keeping expectations in check.
Matty Beniers
Should Beniers continue on his current trajectory, he’ll see at least a 20-point decline in production compared to last season– not ideal. Luckily he’s young and full of potential, and there’s no reason things can’t change for him considering he’s demonstrated in the past he can score at a high frequency, and it’s impossible to win a Calder Memorial trophy by accident. Seattle controls 54.7% of the total shot quality with him on ice, however, somewhat concerningly, most of his underlying offensive numbers have soured since the season’s start, especially those measuring scoring rate per game. Suggesting a sophom*ore slump as the root cause is too easy, a cop-out, and far too abstract. The effects of two suspected head injuries in the span of a little more than a year and low confidence are both strong theories; reality could be a mix of those two, in addition to the second-unluckiest PDO on the roster (97.8).
André Burakvosky
It’s tough to fault Burakovsky for his recent injury stretch, but it’s discouraging to learn he’s spent more time dealing with injuries in his recent season-and-a-half with Seattle than in the prior nine– according to CapFriendly, he’s spent 374 days injured under contract with the Kraken and 137 days injured in his entire career prior to signing. Health has clearly taken a huge toll on his contributions with the team– he’s projected to play 31 games, score two goals, and record 10 points, all career-lows. Expectations were high ahead of what was intended to be his bounce back season, and, given how slowly he’s returned to form in each return he’s made, it’s safe to say he’s disappointed. There’s no reason he can’t come back this second half or even next season and blow everybody away, but Seattle needed him to be one of their best right now, and he simply isn’t.
Pierre-Édouard Bellemare
Similar to Yamamoto, Bellemare was never intended to be a life-changing acquisition for the Kraken, rather a solid fourth-line piece who could be trusted to round out shift rotations without becoming a defensive liability. And as was determined before the season’s start, a sudden increase in scoring from these forwards was unlikely to come close to what the fourth line accomplished last season. Bellemare, however, has hardly even met his those expectations. He ranks top-three in allowing the most shot quality, shot attempts, and high danger shot attempts, has been scratched in favor of Shane Wright despite touting 10 seasons of experience, and the Kraken hold the smallest share in shot quality with him on the ice (33.7%). He hasn’t tasted game action since late December and, worse, his absence hasn’t exactly been a problem.
Stats via HockeyViz, MoneyPuck, NaturalStatTrick, ESPN, NHL.
